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The Pro Punter Friday Line for Sandown and Newcastle

The Spring Carnival winds down with the traditional Sandown meeting featuring the Zipping Stakes while in NSW they travel up to Newcastle for the $1 million dollar Hunter.

Sandown should race perfectly with no bias from any rain or wind. I do not expect it to be too firm either so every horse should have their chance.

Newcastle has gathered plenty of quality for their big day and with maximum fields the norm it is a tough day.

SANDOWN

Zipping Classic

The Zipping Classic has been dominated by horses dropping back from the Melbourne Cup in the last 12 years with at least one runner competing in 11 of the 12 years winning 8 editions.

Backing the 26 runners to return $100 at their starting price would result in an outlay of $580 for a return of $800 or 38% Profit on Turnover.

Avilius is the only Cup horse to back up having finished last beaten 21 lengths in the Cup, eased right down.

While it is true that his turnaround will have to be the biggest that I have recorded there is a strong history of horses taking large steps from the Cup to this race and Avilius can bounce back, particularly if we consider his previous form this preparation including a strong performance in the Caulfield Cup.

His figures of late have been well up to the level required to win this race and he is suited as the best WFA horse in the race.

Had it not been for the Melbourne Cup run or if he had finished midfield, we would be looking at a price of around $2.50 or even shorter.

I am not discounting some horses in good form but am confident that Avilius represents extreme value and is easily good enough to win the race.

NEWCASTLE

The Hunter

This is a very difficult race to assess with my market to 100% at $8 the field.

Fiesta went to a new level setting back-to-back personal bests. She exploded up the straight at Flemington over 1100m.

She steps straight back to 1300 and ran fourth in this race last year. Her recent performances are up to the level required but she does have to overcome a difficult barrier.

Cuba was suited sitting up on a soft pace last start and looks to get across comfortably to sit up on a reasonable pace.

My biggest overlay is Asiago. She comes into this off a series of unlucky runs after winning first-up in the Mona Lisa at Gosford. She was beaten only a length into fifth place in the Group 1 Empire Rose, with a clear case she could have run at least a place.

Asiago ridden by Mark Zahra heads to the barrier before the Empire Rose Stakes. Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

OTHER EARLY PLAY

Sandown Race 10

This looks a very clear race in two with Missile Mantra and Tricky Gal heading the market.

Missile Mantra has been busting to win a race and could have finished closer in the Empire Rose. She ran the quickest last 400m of the race and 14th fastest of the day. She ran the second fastest last 600m of the race 0.23 seconds off Chaillot who held her up at a critical point and she represents great value compared to my $2.75 valuation.

Tricky Gal comes into this off a strong second place behind Savatiano at Rosehill last week. Not sure she will be a strong firmer but does have a good chance of winning the race. One to monitor.N

FRIDAY LINE – EARLY BETS (57 units)

Sandown – Race 8 No.1 – Avilius (Rated $2.75 – Price available $3.90) – 25 units
Sandown – Race 10 No.4 – Missile Mantra ($2.75 – $4) – 25 units
Newcastle – Race 7 No.15 – Asiago ($11 – $17) – 7 units

Originally published asPro Punter Friday Line

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